A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
